Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
